Questions & Answers
Avian Flu in General
- Is a flu pandemic going to happen?
- When will it happen?
- Will it happen in winter?
- Will it pass quickly?
- How long do we have before the virus is detected in say south-east Asia until it hits our shores?
- Who will be at risk when a pandemic occurs?
- What is the difference between seasonal flu and pandemic flu?
- What will be the symptoms?
- What will be the effects on the individual?
- What will be the effects on the country if we are hit by a serious outbreak?
- What is the history of pandemics?
- Will people die this time?
- What is bird flu and has it infected humans?
- Have there been any cases where bird flu has passed from person to person?
- Should I be concerned?
- What can I do to prepare?
- Are protective vaccines available?
- If supplies of vaccine are in short supply, who will get them first?
- What existing drugs are available for treating pandemic flu?
- What is the current alert status of pandemic flu?
Avian Flu in General
1. Is a flu pandemic going to happen?
The World Health Organisation says a flu pandemic is both "inevitable" and "imminent".
Michael O Leavitt, Secretary of the US Department of Health, says "Pandemics are global in nature, but their impact is local. When the next pandemic strikes, as surely it will, it is likely to touch the lives of every individual, family and community."
2. When will it happen?
It is difficult to predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be but the effects of a pandemic can be lessened if preparations are made ahead of time.
3. Will it happen in winter?
Unlike seasonal flu which occurs here in winter, pandemic flu can strike at any time of the year.
4. Will it pass quickly?
It is likely to come in waves – several months apart. Each wave may last for two or three months.
5. How long do we have before the virus is detected in say south-east Asia until it hits our shores?
It took three or four months in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics for Europe and North America to be affected. With so much international travel these days, it could spread faster this time.
6. Who will be at risk when a pandemic occurs?
Everyone across the country. In fact, everyone around the world.
7. What is the difference between seasonal flu and pandemic flu?
Basically, seasonal flu is caused by influenza viruses that are similar to those already affecting people. Pandemic flu is caused by new influenza viruses that people have not been exposed to before. As a result people have no immunity so it is likely to be more severe, affect more people and cause more deaths than seasonal flu.
8. What will be the symptoms?
The symptoms will be similar to seasonal flu – fever, cough, runny nose and muscular pain. The symptoms, however, may be more severe and the complications more serious.
9. What will be the effects on the individual?
With seasonal flu, healthy adults are not usually at risk of serious complications but with pandemic flu, healthy adults may face increased risk of serious complications and even death.
10. What will be the effects on the country if we are hit by a serious outbreak?
If it is a serious pandemic and up to 25% of the population are affected, it would change the pattern of daily life. People will be ill, others will choose to stay at home. Businesses will close. Schools will shut. Travel will be restricted. Public gatherings will be limited. Food supplies may run short. Power supplies may be rationed. Everyday life will change considerably for several months.
11. What is the history of pandemics?
There were three influenza pandemics last century. The most severe occurred in 1918 – 19. It resulted in up to 40 million deaths worldwide. The outbreak in 1957 – 58 was moderately severe and caused 1 – 2 million deaths worldwide. The least severe occurred in 1968 – 69 and resulted in 700,000 deaths worldwide.
12. Will people die this time?
Experts predict the next flu pandemic will claim between 2 million and 50 million lives worldwide. The UK is planning for 50,000 deaths but the number could be significantly more.
13. What is bird flu and has it infected humans?
Avian influenza is a highly infectious disease affecting many species of birds including commercial wild and pet birds. Serious outbreaks have been reported in many countries including France. People have already been infected with bird flu and human deaths have been confirmed in some countries but those who died mainly had close contact with poultry.
14. Have there been any cases where bird flu has passed from person-to-person?
There have been instances of possible person-to-person transmission, but these have been isolated occurrences. Person-to-person transmission must be efficient and sustainable if the virus is to become capable of causing a flu pandemic. That has not yet happened.
However, the pattern of the disease appears to have changed in a way that makes person-to-person transmission more likely.
The health authorities fear that it may mutate into a new virus that is easily transmitted from human-to-human.
15. Should I be concerned?
Yes. You should begin to put self protection plans in place so you are prepared for the advent of a pandemic.
16. What can I do to prepare?
The US Department of Health recommends getting in a supply of water and non-perishable food as stores may be closed and public water services may be interrupted.
The Department of Health also recommends commonsense steps to limit the spread of germs –
- Washing hands frequently.
- Covering your mouth or hands when coughing or sneezing.
- Washing your hands after coughing or sneezing.
- Staying at home if you are sick.
Getting informed is a key recommendation.
17. Are protective vaccines available?
Vaccines are designed to protect against specific flu viruses. Vaccines have been developed for several existing bird flu viruses that may provide some protection should one of these viruses mutate and cause a flu pandemic. A specific pandemic vaccine cannot be produced until a pandemic flu strain emerges and the Government estimates it will take four to six months for the first supplies to become available.
18. If supplies of vaccine are in short supply, who will get them first?
- Front-line health care workers.
- Essential services employees.
- At risk groups including the elderly.
- Enclosed communities including care homes, schools and prisons.
- The general population.
19. What existing drugs are available for treating pandemic flu?
A number of drugs are available to treat and sometimes prevent seasonal flu. Some of these antivirals may be effective in treating pandemic flu. They may help prevent infection or shorten the duration of the symptoms. Pharmaceutical companies are trying to develop new antivirals. Antivirals are available by prescription only and not over the counter.
The UK Government is currently stockpiling 14.6 million treatment courses of the Tamiflu antiviral. Stockpiling will be completed by September. They hope the antivirals will provide "breathing space" until vaccine supplies are available.
20. What is the current alert status of pandemic flu?
The World Health Organisation has six levels of alert. The WHO have categorised the current alert level at 3 meaning a virus new to humans is causing infections, but it does not spread easily from one person to another. WHO Alert Level.
The UK Government alert level is zero.
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